New poll shows Hofmeister leading Stitt in Oklahoma Governor's race
OKLAHOMA CITY (KOKH) — New polling from Oklahoma-based political consulting firm Ascend Action shows a close gubernatorial race just weeks ahead of November's midterm elections.
Data shows Democrat Joy Hofmeister leading the incumbent Republican Governor, Kevin Stitt. In the survey of 638 likely voters, Hofmeister garnered 49% of responses, with Stitt pulling in 42%. Eight-percent of respondents were undecided.
But Hudson Talley, a partner with Ascend, warned that this race could look a lot closer come November 8th.
"We have hit a bit of a ceiling on the Joy Hofmeister side," said Talley. "So I do see this as one of those races where the gap looks wide, a little bit of that is because Republican intensity is waning a bit. When you have $10 million of negative advertising on TV, that tends to happen."
Breaking down the numbers by party affiliation, Hofmeister dominated the Democratic vote, receiving 89% to 4% for Stitt. Independents also heavily favored the Democratic candidate, with 69% backing Hofmeister to 22% for Stitt.
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The incumbent governor remains steadily popular with Republicans, pulling 69% of GOPers surveyed for the poll. However, Hofmeister, a former Republican who switched parties to challenge Stitt in 2022, did still manage to pull 20% of Republicans surveyed.
"I"m starting to see that crossover of moderate Republicans surge just a little bit," said Talley. "And the lack of Republican position among Independents is causing this lead to widen a little bit."
Hofmeister was favored by younger voters in the poll, taking the majority of people ages 18-54 who were surveyed. She also held a slight lead in the 65-74 age group. Stitt had a healthy lead with votes 75 and older, and a slight advantage with voters age 55-64.
Men also favor the incumbent Republican 49-43. But Hofmeister has sizeable support among women voters, topping Stitt significantly at 54-36.
Another area Talley says surprised him in the latest data was rural voters.
"The thing I think that's surprised me the most is the surge for Hofmeister in some of the rural areas," said Talley. "And for the first time in the entirety of this race, I'm actually seeing Stitt down in the west half of the state, and a little bit more competitive than he's been in the east half of the state."
Ascend also rated the candidates' favorability with voters.
Both Stitt and Hofmeister rate out as more favorable with Oklahomans than does President Joe Biden, who only saw a 38% favorability rating. But the incumbent governor's favorability is under water.
Forty-five percent of those surveyed rate Stitt favorably, while 53% see him unfavorably.
Hofmeister topped Stitt in the favorability department as well, garnering a 55% favorability rating. Forty-percent of those surveyed rated the state superintendent as unfavorable.
With three weeks left until election day, Talley says a lot can still change in the close race. He pointed to high spending from Hofmeister's side, and said he believes more money will come from the Governor over the next few weeks.
"I know there's a lot of money that's probably going to be hitting TV to hit Joy Hofmeister on her records, on some of her more extreme positions. And I do expect that to change, that 20% of Republicans we're seeing in our poll be more comfortable shifting," said Talley. "And that's going to close that gap. By how much? I'm not sure."
And even while trailing in the Ascend data, Talley does believe the incumbent is still very much in this race.
"I feel like Joy may be at her ceiling and this may be Stitt's race to lose," said Talley.
You can see the full results of Ascend Action's October polling data below:
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