Oklahoma governor's race tightening? Election analyst shifts race outlook
OKLAHOMA CITY (KOKH) — A national election analyst group is shifting its outlook on Oklahoma's governor's race less than six weeks from November's midterms.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Thursday moved the race between incumbent Republican Kevin Stitt and Democrat Joy Hofmeister from 'Solid R' to 'Likely R.' But what does that change mean?
"It merits watching," said Jessica Taylor, the Senate and Governors Editor for Cook. "We still see Governor Stitt as favored. However, this could be a little bit more of interesting of a race, especially in a state like Oklahoma, in this sort of final last dash to election day."
Taylor said the adjustment was made for several reasons. She pointed to Hofmeister already having won two statewide elections (for State Superintendent of Public Instruction), and her longtime standing as a Republican, which Taylor notes could give her some "crossover appeal."
But one of the biggest factors in the shift, according to Taylor, is money.
"He has a lot of negative ads being spent against him. He's being outspent by groups attacking him and supporting Joy Hofmeister. And in the runup to this, that's something that's really notable, especially when it is an incumbent," said Taylor.
Taylor also noted some policy decisions Stitt has made in his first term that could be working against him as we near Election Day.
"You look back at school vouchers, feuds he's had with tribal leaders over both sovereignty and casino fees and different things. And that seems to be where some of this money is coming from," said Taylor. And so there's a couple just different elements that we don't typically see in a Governor's race in Oklahoma."
Still, Taylor emphasized the incumbent Republican remains the favorite in the race. She says it's a "much higher step" for the race to be moved into the tighter 'Lean' category, and they'd need to see more to slide it there before Election Day.
"I still think a lot of things would have to change for Hofmeister to have a real shot at this," said Taylor. "But it's one that we're now noticing."
Cook today also shifted race outlooks for Governor in Pennsylvania and Michigan further in favor of Democrats, the outlook for Governor in Ohio further in favor of Republicans.
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